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State Street Global said Wednesday that the severe blow of the new coronavirus epidemic is likely to lead to a global economic recession. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may indicate that if the global recession is not short-lived and mild, the Federal Reserve will further significantly relax monetary policy, or even quantitative easing.
Here's Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy at State Street global markets, with his latest comments:
Although the interest rate cut has little effect on the economic impact that may be caused immediately by the epidemic, it can at least boost the financial market at the spiritual level and help to alleviate the vicious circle that may occur between the real economy and the financial market.
The KKT index of novel coronavirus pneumonia index indicates that the possibility of US economic recession has increased even before the outbreak of new crown pneumonia and its potential linkage effect to other countries. China's February purchasing managers' index (PMI) is the first tangible example that seems to confirm the view that commodity markets have been trying to express for some time that a global recession is coming.
Global growth expectations are already very low (just below 3%). The severe blow of the epidemic could easily lead to a global recession. The Fed's actions at the beginning of this year mean that when the recession comes, which looks more likely now, it is likely to be short-lived and light.

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