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The latest economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics in October was worse than expected, and the policy effect of stabilizing infrastructure construction was not reflected. In the first 10 months of this year, the investment growth rate even reached a record low. Analysts pointed out that, given the weak growth momentum and the weak global economic environment, it is difficult to judge the bottom of the economy. For some time in the future, the downward trend of China's economy will remain the main tone, but the risk of stall decline is small.
According to the requirement of the executive meeting of the State Council on Wednesday to reduce the capital ratio of some infrastructure projects, the policy is on the way and still has room to play. With the continuous increase of policy and the increase of counter cyclical adjustment since the middle of the year, including the new deal of special bonds, it is expected that the moderate recovery of infrastructure construction will still be supported in the future.
"The downward trend of the overall data partly echoes the keynote of yesterday's national regular meeting, that is, policy makers have realized that the economic downturn may exceed market expectations, and have introduced some policies on investment." Zhang Yi, chief economist of zhonghaishengrong, said that in the long run, structural problems are the main factors leading to the decline of manufacturing investment, which can't be solved only by money. Therefore, it's a cliche that reform is very important.
Wan Zhe, chief economist of China Gold Group, pointed out that the further downward trend of the economy should not be ruled out, and we should be alert to the further extrusion of the downstream due to the continuous spillover of inflation and fermentation in the future. "The next step is for sure. At present, the policy has space but space is limited, and the marginal effect is still visible." The important thing is still the market-oriented reform, especially in the case of sluggish demand, to a certain extent, to suppress demand in the reform, how to solve it deserves attention.
China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the value-added of industries above Designated Size rose 4.7% year-on-year in October, far lower than the 5.4% predicted by Reuters survey; the total retail sales of consumer goods rose 7.2% year-on-year, the lowest in six months, lower than the 7.9% predicted by Reuters survey. Fixed asset investment rose 5.2% year-on-year from January to October, lower than 5.4% of the median forecast in Reuters survey, the lowest on record.
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