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        Fund managers tend to be optimistic


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The US economic outlook has brightened in recent weeks, thanks to signs of progress in the US China trade negotiations, which has given the big asset managers attending this week's Reuters global investment outlook 2020 summit a fresh sense of confidence that there will be no recession for a year or more.
Despite signs of caution from fund managers, some recent signs of thawing in trade tensions between China and the US have helped calm their nerves.
Andrew Hsu, CO investment manager of doubleline Total Return Bond Fund (dbltx), said doubleline capital, the asset management company of Jeffrey gundlach, a well-known bond fund manager, had reduced the probability of the US falling into recession in the coming year to 40% from 75% a few months ago.
Hsu said that earlier this year, trade tensions between China and the United States intensified, and manufacturing, corporate executives' confidence and corporate capital expenditure all fell sharply, all of which indicated that there was a greater possibility of economic recession.
But some good news, such as corporate earnings, strong employment and wage growth, helped brighten the economic outlook, Hsu said.
"All of this suggests that the economy may still have some momentum and is not yet in recession," he said.
The shift in the focus of the Federal Reserve over the past few months, from raising interest rates in the past three years to cutting them three times this year, has also helped ease concerns.


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