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After a slight rebound in September, China's official manufacturing PMI failed to continue to recover as expected in October and fell to an eight month low, which was mainly affected by factors such as falling market demand and low-level operation of the foreign trade market. The growth rate of enterprise production and procurement was slowing down, indicating that the short-term economy has not yet stabilized and downward pressure is still increasing.
However, analysts pointed out that the decline in the working day of the 11th holiday also had a certain negative impact on the manufacturing PMI in October, while the decline of new export orders or overdraft due to earlier export grabbing. Considering that China is still in the stage of active destocking, the future counter cyclical policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, and the easing of Sino US trade relations and other factors, the economy will gradually enter the stage of stabilization.
"In terms of new orders, purchasing, production, inventory and price, the economy is still in a typical active de stocking stage, but we don't think we should be overly pessimistic about the economy in the fourth quarter." According to Li Qilin and Zhang Deli, macro analysts of lianxun securities, the external trade environment has eased, real estate investment has been resilient in the short term, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is close to the bottom, and the strength of stable infrastructure growth is also increasing.
China's National Bureau of statistics and the Federation of logistics and purchasing (CFLP) jointly announced on Thursday that the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in October, lower than the median Reuters survey estimate and 49.8 last month, the sixth consecutive month that the index was below the boom and bust line.

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