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As the adjustment of China's bond market intensified in October, the position of China's 10-year Treasury bond futures continued to rise and reached new highs. Analysts believe that this shows that under the gradual easing of the Sino US trade war and the shadow disturbance of domestic CPI rising, the cautious attitude of the existing bonds continues to heat up, the market long space competition game gradually intensifies, the divergence on the future market trend is further increased, and the institutional position wait-and-see attitude is becoming stronger.
They believe that despite the current inflation concerns and constraints on monetary policy, which led to the flat LPR this month, all of which exacerbated the short-term adjustment trend of the bond market, the economic outlook for the third quarter's GDP decline is still worrying, and the external situation between China and the United States eased in the short term, but there is still a long way to go. In addition, under the global easing environment, the attraction of domestic bond market remains unchanged, and it is expected that there will be still a good space for cash bonds, but when will the short-term game pattern be broken? Focus on the central bank's action under the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window at the end of October and the policy signal of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee.
"In recent years, the position of treasury bond futures has been increasing, while the price of treasury bond futures has not fluctuated much. This shows that a considerable number of investors are quite different, that is to say, there are both long and short forces involved, which makes the position of treasury bond futures rise obviously, but the price fluctuation is not big, "said Dong Dezhi, chief analyst of Guoxin Securities macro bond research team.
He pointed out that under the condition that the follow-up inflationary pressure is large and CPI nominal growth rate is expected to pick up, market investors gradually began to be cautious about the bond market. Therefore, some investors will hedge the bonds in the portfolio, and some investors will choose to short directly on the Treasury bond futures.
According to Reuters data, the positions of the main contracts of 10-year Treasury bond futures on China Financial Futures Exchange rose to 80111 on August 29, which was the highest since the listing, and then maintained a high volatility. After the National Day holiday, the positions rose again, reaching a new high of 86990 on Thursday, and the total positions of all contracts of 10-year Treasury bond futures reached a new high of 93514.

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