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JPMorgan Chase, an investment bank, reported that under the pressure of China's weak domestic macroeconomic situation, continued concerns about trade negotiations and the existing tariff has not yet fallen, the bank's medium-term view on the RMB exchange rate is still cautious, predicting that the USD / RMB will gradually rise from 7.05 at the end of this year to 7.20 in the third quarter of next year.
The report said it was not surprising that the renminbi had rebounded to 7.05 as China and the United States had made some progress in resolving the trade dispute in the near future and the two heads of state were expected to sign an agreement on November 16 at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting. In response to the temporary truce in the Sino US trade war and the delay in the US tariff due to be implemented in mid October, the bank's forecast of USD / RMB at the end of this year fell to 7.05 from the previous 7.35.
According to the report, there are reports that the monetary agreement may be part of the first phase agreement between China and the United States, but details are not yet known. At this stage, it is estimated that the agreement may be similar to the US Mexico Canada agreement (usmca), which includes the terms of the commitment that the market determines the exchange rate mechanism and increases the transparency of data. The agreement framework itself raises the question of which direction the RMB will go. If China turns to a more market-based foreign exchange system, the USD / RMB will go higher rather than lower, which is obviously contrary to the goal of the United States.

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