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It's too early to turn to the long RMB in the short term, and the 7.0 level is still difficult to overcome. However, due to the landing of the negotiation stage, the implied volatility of offshore/onshore RMB options has dropped significantly, indicating that market tension has eased.
"Without more details on the trade agreement, the market was too optimistic this morning, and weak import and export data did not cool the market," said a foreign bank trader.
Traders also said that the market will focus on the performance of the next mid-price. After more than a month of no fluctuation, the intermediate price has been regarded as an important indicator for the next step of the RMB exchange rate, and is expected to resume volatility tomorrow.
Iris Pang, a Greater China economist at ING, said in his latest comment that the recent appreciation of the RMB was more a result of the weakness of the US dollar; it is estimated that China is unlikely to change the existing RMB exchange rate regime, but the United States may continue to urge China to appreciate the RMB, which may also make future negotiations between China and the United States more difficult. The short-term RMB will not rise above the 7-point level, maintaining the judgement of 7.2 at the end of the year.
U.S. President Trump said on Friday that the United States and China have reached the first phase of substantive trade agreements in areas such as intellectual property rights, financial services and procurement of bulk agricultural products; the two sides are very close to ending the trade war, and it will take five weeks to put the agreed content into words.
Another foreign bank trader said that it is still difficult for the RMB to get out of the appreciation trend in the short term. According to the recent disclosure of the negotiations, there is no special substantive advantage, but the trade war has not been further escalated, and the relevant written agreement is still in the process of drafting, there are still some variables.
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