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China-U.S. trade talks have yielded phase results, paving the way for the special session next month. But even with the signing of the stage agreement, the outlook can not be too optimistic, because the future will be discussed such as subsidies and other difficult issues, not to mention the need for re-election of President Trump, at any time, to play the Chinese card.
China and the United States have completed the thirteenth round of high-level trade negotiations, and progress is expected. To pave the way for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held at the end of next month, unexpectedly, the results seem to be more than expected. In principle, China and the United States have made progress in agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rate, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technology transfer and dispute settlement.
It is generally believed that at the present stage, the United States should earn more than China, because China seems to have compromised in many ways, but only the United States has temporarily suspended the implementation of the arrangement, which was originally scheduled to increase tariffs to 30% on 250 billion US dollars of Chinese products on 15 January. As for the substance, since there is no open text between China and the United States, it is necessary to see whether the Chinese side has been asking for the cancellation of all new tariff increases if it can sign a phase agreement.
China and the United States are willing to compromise for the time being. Faced with huge downward pressure, China's economic growth is expected to fall below 6% next year. China needs to strive for a better start next year. Of course, the United States also has recession or imminent pressure. Whether Trump can win the re-election campaign at the end of next year or not, he still needs to win the support of farmers. This can be seen from his meeting with Vice Premier Liu He of China. At the press conference, he can't wait to laugh as a winner. Farmers should buy more farmland and bigger trucks at once.
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