Italy's new government downgraded its GDP growth forecast for this year and next
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Three people familiar with the situation told Reuters that Italy's new government expects economic growth to be only about 0.4% next year, compared with 0.1% this year, suggesting that Italy needs to adopt an expansionary budget plan by 2020.
In April this year, the previous government, composed of the Five-Star Movement against Constructivism and the Right-wing Alliance Party, set 0.2% and 0.8% GDP growth targets for this year and 2020, respectively.
The new projections, which are based on the fact that policies remain unchanged, will provide a framework for the country's budget. Italy is required to submit its budget plan to the European Commission next month.
Sources said that the budget plan is expected to include tax cuts and other measures to promote economic growth, which will make GDP growth forecast in 2020 slightly higher than the economic growth forecast in the context of policy unchanged.
Government sources told Reuters last week that next year's budget deficit is likely to target around 2.3% of GDP, up from 2.04% this year.
The Ministry of Finance has yet to finalize its economic growth forecast, which must be formally submitted to Parliament by September 27. Sources said that the economic forecast for 2020 may be slightly revised. A source said that it was likely to be revised down to 0.3% growth rather than up to 0.5%.
The Ministry of Finance was not immediately available for comment.
The policy's unchanged forecast includes the negative impact of the increase in the consumption tax, which will begin in January next year, but a new government composed of the Five-Star Movement and the left-wing Democratic Party has promised to avoid such an increase.
The last coalition government proposed a plan to increase VAT from 22% to 25.2%.
The new government said it would hurt already weak consumer spending and domestic demand and that it must be abolished.
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