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        The S&P 500 index is close to the top


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The median estimate of 47 strategists surveyed by Reuters over the past two weeks shows that the S&P 500 index. SPX closed at 2,925 in 2019, up nearly 2% from Tuesday's closing price and nearly 17% from 2018's closing price.
These target prices are almost unchanged from Reuters survey results in May.
Most of the respondents still believe that global monetary policy easing is a multi-factor of stock market net profit, but the vast majority of respondents say that their market expectations risk is downward.
"Global economic growth is slowing down, yield curve is upside down, trade tariff policy is full of uncertainty, and in all respects, the Federal Reserve may be lagging behind the situation. In terms of financial situation, interest rate cuts are too slow," said Darrell Cronk, investment director of Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management in New York.
Cronk expects the current bull market to continue until 2021, as consumer spending in the United States remains robust and corporate profits grow, albeit at a much slower rate than in 2018.
But the U.S. -China trade war has become a key risk for the market to rise. Strategists worry that tariff-led price increases could slow global trade and weaken the global economy.
"The risks to our optimistic goals have risen significantly." Hank Smith, chairman of the Haverford Trust Investment Selection Committee, added, "Trump may think that hitting China is an issue that will help him win [in the 2020 U.S. presidential election]," or that China or Trump may not be able to re-elect and will not negotiate.


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