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SHANGHAI, Aug. 28, Reuters -- "An analysis is as fierce as a tiger, and the rise and fall depend entirely on Trump", which is the most direct feeling of China's foreign exchange market in more than a year since the Sino-US trade war. From August to now, the RMB has fallen by nearly 4%. It is expected to achieve the biggest one-month decline, which shows the power of Trump. But if we compare it horizontally, the RMB is at most slightly weak, not to mention manipulation, let alone competitive devaluation.
Since the collapse of negotiations between China and the United States in early May this year, market expectations for an agreement between China and the United States have been very low. According to Trump's previous tariff imposed on China and Canada, it is difficult for the short-term Sino-US trade war to make substantial progress, RMB or continue to bear pressure; however, the supervision continued to maintain stability through a combination of fists, coupled with no imbalance in capital flows, the scope for the continued decline of RMB has been limited. If the U.S. imposes tariffs on all Chinese goods by the end of the year, the RMB may test the 7.2 yuan barrier.
Since the US President Trump announced a 25% tariff plan on Chinese goods valued at about $50 billion on April 3, 2018, the Sino-US trade war has officially begun, and the RMB has begun to decline gradually. Every time Trump offered a new tariff measure, the RMB has fallen in one round, and every time the exchange rate falls further angered. Trump, the tariff stick is swinging again. Tax increases and depreciation seem to be a dead cycle.
During the escalating trade war between China and the United States from April to November last year, the RMB fell by more than 10%, but market sentiment eased significantly after the call between the two heads of state at the end of October. In December, the two heads of state decided to suspend the trade war and start negotiations. By the end of April, the RMB rebounded by more than 3.5%. In the middle, after many rounds of high-level consultations, the market reached a conclusion in May. The expectations of the agreement are very high.
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