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China's pork imports are expected to rise sharply from 2.1 million tons in 2018 to 3.3 million tons in 2019 and 4.2 million tons in 2020 due to the outbreak of African swine fever, brokerage and consulting firm INTL FCStone said on Monday.
At a commodity outlook meeting in Sao Paulo, FCStone estimated that China's pork production would fall from 54 million tons in 2018 to 38 million tons in 2019. Pork production in China is expected to drop further to 34 million tons by 2020.
Renato Rasmussen, director of Brazilian market intelligence at FCStone, said it could take up to seven years for China's pork production to recover to nearly 50 million tons a year, opening a window of opportunity for meat exporters in other countries.
In addition to the increase in pork imports, he believes that China will consume more animal protein as the number of beef and poultry meat increases.
Rasmussen said Monday's estimates were prepared by China's FCStone analysts and that the European Union and other Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, are expected to benefit from an increase in Chinese pork imports.

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