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Although the U-shaped reversal of market expectations on Fed policy, which shifted from tightening expectations at the beginning of the year to easing expectations, did not cause the dollar to weaken, the latest survey of 60 analysts showed that the dollar's outlook remained weak.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but the dollar remained stable, mainly because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the latest move was a "cyclical adjustment of policy", which suppressed market expectations of radical easing.
Demand for dollar-denominated assets is robust and helps keep the dollar attractive, but more than 40% of analysts who answered another question said that changes in Fed policy expectations would affect the dollar's trend.
According to Chicago's Fed Watch, financial markets now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice by the end of the year, 25 basis points at a time. Most analysts who answered an additional question believed that this would depress the dollar substantially.
"The dollar's position as the major high-yield G10 currency needs to be weakened. So if interest rates are moving as expected... it's likely to significantly depress the dollar, "said Adam Cole, head of foreign exchange strategy at RBC.
Powell made it clear that this was not the beginning of the Fed's easing cycle. But Trump has repeatedly pressed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively.

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