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China's 13th Five-Year Plan has set a target of doubling GDP and urban and rural residents'income by 2020 compared with 2010. The latest research report of Everbright Securities, a domestic securities firm, points out that the above-mentioned GDP doubling target is expected to be achieved when the compound growth rate of China's GDP reaches 6.2% in 2019 and 2020, while the economic growth in the first half of this year is 6.3%. Even if the growth rate of GDP in the second half of this year falls, the possibility of annual growth of about 6.2% is still relatively high. 。
According to the report of Zhang Wenlang and Zheng Yuchi, macro-analysts of Everbright Securities, the fourth national economic census is being carried out this year. According to past experience, due to the improvement of GDP statistics and the rapid development of service economy in the past few years, next year's economic growth, even if not 6.2%, is likely to double GDP. It's bigger, too.
"Assuming that the increase in GDP after the fourth national economic census is only half the increase in the third census, GDP will double in 2020 compared with 2010 when the compound growth rate of GDP is 6.06% in 2019 and 2020." According to the report.
The report points out that according to the experience of the previous three national economic censuses, due to the improvement of GDP statistics, there is a possibility of GDP revision in previous years. For example, after the first census, GDP rose by more than 5% in 2004, and after the second census, GDP rose by more than 3% in 2008.
However, with the continuous improvement of the GDP statistics system, the increase of GDP may be reduced after the economic census. For example, the GDP revision in the past years after the third economic census is much lower than the previous two censuses, the GDP revision in 2013 is less than 1%, and in the early 1980s GDP was also downgraded.

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