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According to a recent study by investment bank Goldman Sachs, US President Trump's proposal to impose a 10% tariff on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports from September 1 aims to put pressure on Chinese officials who will visit the United States in early September, but the possibility of a new round of tariffs being effectively implemented increases the chances of interest rate cuts to the Federal Reserve in September.
In the report, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said: "Although we have not changed the Fed's basic view of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this year, a new round of tariffs has tilted the risk towards further interest rate cuts and raised our subjective probability of reducing interest rates in September from 60% to 80%.
The bank now expects a 25-basis-point cut in September of 70%, a 50-basis-point cut of 10%, and a 20% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged; the original expectations are 55%, 5% and 40%, respectively.
U.S. President Trump said Thursday that he would impose a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China from September 1, after the latest round of negotiations between Chinese and American negotiators failed to make progress. The move triggered a shock wave in the U.S. market.
Goldman Sachs believes that Trump's announcement refers to "continuing a positive dialogue with China on a broad trade agreement" and that it may be a means of pressure for Chinese officials to make more concessions before they visit Washington in September.
"If so, we don't think it's likely to succeed, but it shows that these tariffs are not final." Goldman Sachs pointed out, "However, we believe that a new round of tariffs has a greater opportunity to implement, rather than delay or cancel."

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