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Publication Time: Official PMI is scheduled to be released at 09:00 on Wednesday, July 31, and Caixin PMI is scheduled to be released at 09:45 on Thursday, August 1.
Reuters median forecast: official PMI 49.6; Caixin PMI 49.6
Reuters survey forecast range: official PMI 49.1-49.8; Caixin PMI 49.2-50.2
BEIJING, July 30 (Reuters) - The median forecast of 34 Reuters analysts shows that due to the recent policy acceleration, market sentiment is warming. China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to rise slightly to 49.6 in July, and industrial production may improve.
Meanwhile, the median forecast of 21 analysts shows that the PMI of China's manufacturing industry in Caixin is expected to rise to 49.6 in June.
According to Shen Wanhongyuan's macro team, from high-frequency data, average coal consumption continued to increase negatively in July and blast furnace start-up rate declined year-on-year, but capital investment is expected to improve and real estate construction is still resilient. In July, the output of threaded steel and wire rod in major steel mills increased at a relatively high rate.
Liu Xuezhi, a researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, pointed out that the average daily coal consumption of the six power generation groups has been on the rise since July, but it is still negative year-on-year growth. The increase of coal consumption is related to the heat of the weather, which reflects more energy consumption in daily life. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial added value will rise and fall in July, and the PMI of manufacturing industry will be lower than that of prosperity and decline. Line.
However, Jiang Chao, an economist at Haitong Securities, believes that the blast furnace start-up rate in China was unchanged at 66.7% last week, but it is still at a new low level in the same period since 14 years. In the first 26 days of July, the growth rate of coal consumption in power generation of the six major groups increased to - 15.5% year-on-year, which means that industrial production will weaken again in July.

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