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Bank of England President Kenny Carney said yesterday that the global trade war and non-agreement withdrawal from Europe are increasing risks facing the British economy and may need more help to cope with the economic downturn, prompting investors to increase their bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cut.
The UK purchasing managers index (PMI) for services in June, released by IHS Markit/CIPS, dropped from 51.0 in May to 50.2, slightly above the 50-year-old dividing line and below the 51.0 average estimated by analysts in the Reuters survey.
IHS Markit/CIPS pointed out that PMI surveys released earlier this week showed that manufacturing and construction contracted in June, suggesting that the UK economy as a whole may shrink by 0.1% in the second quarter.
Official figures show that the last quarterly contraction in British gross domestic product was in the fourth quarter of 2012. The last consecutive two or more quarters of contraction occurred between 2008 and 2009 during the global financial crisis. It is generally believed that two consecutive quarters of contraction can be defined as a recession.
"Demand has deteriorated over the past year as uncertainty about Britain's withdrawal from Europe intensifies the impact of the global economic slowdown and has evolved into the latest downturn," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

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