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J.P. Morgan Chase, the investment bank, published a report expecting global GDP growth to slow to around 2.5% in the second half of the year from 2.75% in the first half, with the risk of further declining to 2.0-2.25%. This would be the weakest growth since 2012, and the risk of recession in the United States would increase to 40% in the next 12 months.
The bank's mid-2019 outlook report says business confidence and global capital expenditure are adversely affected by trade uncertainty, and macro risks remain downward. As global central bank easing tends to be more synchronized, investment strategies may turn cyclical. The Bank expects six developed market central banks and 13 emerging market central banks to ease in the second half of the year, with developed country policy interest rates falling by 29 basis points on the weighted average of GDP and emerging market interest rates falling by 31 basis points (47 basis points excluding China).
The report said that although the central bank's moderate attitude can support the stock market in the global economic slowdown, the period of low growth may last longer than expected, and if hit hard, the healthy expansion of the economy may be difficult to achieve. According to JPMorgan Chase's model, the likelihood of recession risk in the United States over the next 12 months has risen from 25% in September last year to about 40% now.
JPMorgan Chase said that many stock and fixed income asset classes recorded double-digit returns in the first half of the year and suggested defensive trading to maintain strong performance this year. The report expects that most asset classes will return only a single unit for the rest of the year, with emerging market currencies expected to suffer moderate losses. Japanese stocks are the only asset class that the bank predicts to perform better in the second half than in the first half.
The report says valuations are not attractive because of the strong rebound in stocks and bonds over the past month. Whether consumption can compensate for weak growth in manufacturing and capital expenditure remains to be seen, but as business confidence deteriorates, it seems unlikely that consumption will rebound quickly. The report points out that it is defensive but not excessively bearish, and expects the yield to decline further in the second half of the year. The Bank continues to prefer stocks rather than bonds and believes that global credit will test again this year's level of tension.

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