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Since the beginning of the year, global stock and bond markets have risen unusually in tandem, benefiting both bullish and bearish investors in global economic growth.
The main driver of the market rally was the surprising decision of the Federal Reserve to suspend tightening in early January. After the Fed raised interest rates four times in 2018, as the economy cooled and inflation remained depressed, there were fears that the Fed had gone too far in raising interest rates. Such concerns led to a sharp drop in global markets in December.
But with the S&P 500 index. SPX approaching a record high and corporate junk bonds reaching a new high, investors in the stock and bond markets wonder whether the Fed's next move will be to further boost interest rates on risky assets or to hinder stock market gains.
Investors said that if the Federal Reserve takes interest rate action or communication errors, it may not lead to the end of the stock market rally before the end of the year, or lead to the end of the investment-grade bond rally, so that risky assets and security assets to restore the traditional relationship between the ups and downs.
"The Fed is in a dilemma on both sides," said Kathleen Gaffney, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Management. "They can't cut interest rates because there are signs of rising inflation, and they can't raise interest rates because of global political uncertainty. This puts the market on the sidelines.
The Federal Reserve has said it will stop shrinking shortly, which also helps to depress the yield of safe haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, and to boost risky assets.

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