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According to the median forecast of Reuters'survey of more than 20 analysts, although credit investment fluctuated greatly in the first two months of this year, according to the historical rule that credit lines accounted for about 30% of the whole year in the first quarter, China's new loans will return to normal in March, expected to rise to 120 billion yuan in season, and the growth of social financing scale is expected to rise to 1744 trillion yuan after a new low of more than two and a half years in February. M2 growth is expected to rebound to 8.2% after hitting a record low.
The CICC consolidation team believes that credit is weak and still supported by bills. The state-owned big banks'credit investment is better than that of small and medium-sized banks, but the total amount is stable. According to the ticket exchange data, the monthly increment of bank discount balance corresponding to bill financing in March recovered to 255 billion yuan from February, and the new credit in March is expected to remain basically the same as 1.1 trillion yuan in the same period last year.
Bank of Communications Financial Research Center pointed out that due to seasonal factors in February, credit growth fell, and credit growth will return to normal in March. The main positive factor to stimulate credit growth is the gradual development of fiscal policy, but it may still be difficult to drive the rapid rebound of credit growth in the short term.
According to the analysis of the report, the main reason is that the issuance of local bonds has been accelerating in recent years and some of the bank's loanable funds have been diverted. In addition, at the end of the season, the requirement of deviation and liquidity-related indicators of the relevant Prudential indicators will restrict the rapid rise of credit growth. As a result, the credit growth in March will be about 1.3 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of about 13.4%.
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