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Sub-item data show that production recovery is stronger than demand, domestic demand rebound is general and external demand will continue to be under pressure. Enterprises begin to replenish inventory, but overall inventory rebound is weak, indicating that the expansion of production is limited, economic recovery will face a test, and easing policy is still worth looking forward to.
"The March PMI rebound mainly reflects the seasonal rebound in the month after the Spring Festival," said Li Chao, macro team of Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. that the Spring Festival and the 15th of January are all in February this year, and the Spring Festival effect in March is stronger than last year, so the April PMI is expected to decline annually.
They said that although PMI improved year-on-year, the weak profit data showed that the follow-up of industrial production was weak. This year's policies are mainly stable. Fiscal policy to improve quality and efficiency is to reduce taxes and charges for enterprises to support profits. While reducing taxes and electricity charges, it may also cooperate with interest rate reduction. It is expected that the central bank will reduce interest rates in the second quarter.
China's National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) jointly announced on Sunday that the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in March, which was higher than the median of Reuters'survey forecast of 49.5 and was back above the critical point. In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54, which was higher than 52.4 last month, indicating that the overall expansion of production and business activities of enterprises had accelerated. The official non-manufacturing business activity index rose 0.5 points to 54.8 in March.
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