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Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest report points out that China's economy may take longer than before to recover (the fastest is the second quarter of this year) due to a slow start and a decline in the effectiveness of some policy instruments, so easing measures may last for up to two to three quarters.
In his report, Qiao Hong, a China and Asian economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, pointed out that with the coming of the Sino-US trade agreement, the biggest remaining problem facing China is the time and effectiveness of the economic "drug drop". Referring to the experience of 2009 and 2015, China can reverse the economic downturn quite quickly, but due to the slow start of this year's economy and the decline in the effectiveness of some policy instruments, it may take longer than before to recover.
"In other words, the likely outcome is not a lack of momentum or a V-shaped rebound in the L-shaped, but a gradual U-shaped recovery." "The real economy may hit bottom in the second quarter, but it may not hit bottom until the third quarter," she said.
She pointed out that due to the slow economic effects of policy relaxation, the real economic growth data are likely to weaken further, especially in the first quarter of this year, the foreign trade environment is more severe.
The bank believes that there is still much room for a reduction in China's reserve requirement ratio for the rest of the year. In the coming months, the central bank is expected to vigorously promote bond issuance to increase credit growth invested in the real economy, and the total amount of social financing is expected to rebound further.

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