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January 16th, two years of speculation in the property market, some people think that it will continue to be hot, some people think that the bubble will be broken. After a decade of continuous rise in Hong Kong's property market, there was a certain degree of weakness at the end of 2018. UBS, Nomura Securities, Citigroup and other institutions predicted that Hong Kong's property market transactions and prices would decline. UBS predicted that from now on to the end of 2019, Hong Kong's housing prices would fall by 10%. At the recent 12th Asian Financial Forum, Liu Yixiang, Director of Financial Affairs and Treasury, said that the government still had counter-cyclical measures in the face of Hong Kong's current property market. Bloomberg cited the agency's view that the reason why Hong Kong's property market will not collapse is simple: "There is still a lot of money."
Over the past decade, Hong Kong's property market has continued to strengthen. By 2017, the average price of private houses in Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and the New Territories had soared to HK$194,500 per square metre, HK$177,700 per square metre and HK$107,200 per square metre. However, the median annual household income in Hong Kong was only HK$327,600. An ordinary family in Hong Kong can't afford 2 square meters of food or drink all year round.
At the end of September 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed suit. Many local banks in Hong Kong raised their best interest rates. The ultra-low interest rate environment that Hong Kong has maintained for ten years ended, and the number of institutions short of Hong Kong's property market gradually increased.
UBS, Nomura Securities, Citigroup and many other institutions forecast that Hong Kong's property market will decline and house prices will fall accordingly. UBS expects Hong Kong's house prices to fall by 10% from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019.
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