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Iran's oil exports to China, Europe and other countries will be reduced in the remainder of the year and in 2019 if the United States implements Trump's decision to restore the highest level of sanctions on the "oil trade" for Iran.
Sources in the refinery say that Asian refiners have turned to other exporting countries to buy oil in order to prevent the us from restoring sanctions against Iran. Iran is a member of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Its current export volume is about 2 million 500 thousand barrels per day. Its main customers include China, India and other Asian countries.
On Tuesday, Trump announced the withdrawal of the nuclear agreement signed by the world's major powers and Iran in 2015 and resumed the implementation of the "highest level" sanctions.
"We anticipate that this decision will lead some buyers to abandon the purchase of Iran oil," said Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington consultancy.
The Iran nuclear agreement limits the country's development of nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting sanctions in Europe and the United States.
Iran's current output is about 3 million 800 thousand barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global supply. Because sanctions will not take effect after 180 days, Iran's crude oil exports will not decrease immediately.
US European allies on Tuesday promised to abide by the Iran nuclear agreement.
But European and Asian Importers may soon find themselves facing the choice of doing business with the US or Iran. McNally said, "I think everyone will rush to call the White House, hoping to be exempted."
The export trend is likely to repeat the tough sanctions imposed by western countries on Iran in early 2012. At that time, Iran crude oil exports fell to just over 1 million barrels per day, mainly from four buyers - China, India, Japan and South Korea.
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