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China's import and export growth in March fell by one rise to a year earlier than expected, and its first trade deficit in more than a year was mainly affected by factors such as the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the significant appreciation of the RMB and the frictions between China and the United States. Analysts stressed that China's foreign trade has maintained a steady growth trend in the first quarter.
However, they also pointed out that the Sino US trade frictions throughout the March are expected to be a lasting war and need to pay close attention to further progress. If there are no signs of mitigation, the export will face greater uncertainty in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, as China increases its support for imports, the trade surplus will narrow down in the future.
"Generally speaking, the data in the first quarter were good, but in March it was normal for Spring Festival to rush to fight. Niu Li, director of the national information center of China National Information Center, said that, considering that trade frictions in China and the United States are still continuing, they do not exclude the export or import of enterprises related to products before the two sides are in specific hands. It is expected that the overall situation of trade in 4-5 months should not be affected by trade friction.
But he also pointed out that the subsequent growth of foreign trade may not be so high due to the influence of base number, exchange rate and the change of world economic situation.
China Customs General Administration announced on Friday that in dollar terms, exports in March dropped 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and imports increased by 14.4% compared to the same period. The median of Reuters survey increased by 10%. In March, the trade deficit was 4 billion 980 million US dollars, and Reuters estimated its median surplus of US $27 billion 210 million, which is the first time since February last year there has been a trade deficit.
Customs data also showed that exports and imports grew by 14.1% and 18.9% in the first quarter, respectively, with a trade surplus of 48 billion 390 million US dollars.
"At present, there are still many favorable conditions to promote the development of China's foreign trade, but there are still many uncertainties in the international environment." Huang Songping, a spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said at the conference that international environmental uncertainty has brought challenges to the world economic recovery. Rising trade protectionism has brought challenges to the growth of international trade. The rise of global manufacturing competition has brought challenges to the development of China's foreign trade.
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