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China's rapidly growing demand has boosted soybean production in the US. For the first time since the corn soybean would exceed 35 years to become the largest crop planting area of america. US government data show that soybean exports to China now account for 62% of all soybean exports.
China is also the main importing country of sorghum, but the anti-dumping investigation launched by the Chinese government has damaged the trade of sorghum. According to China Customs data, sorghum imported from the United States in February dropped by 24% compared to the same period last year.
China's rapid retaliation measures are disturbing the American farmers. Because there are many kinds of farm products that have or may become China's target of revenge, the choice of American farmers has narrowed. Arkansas Doug Keesling is hard to imagine that he will be what kind of crops to replace soybean.
Keesling said that the most logical next option is usually sorghum, but the premise is that China will not impose duties after anti-dumping investigations. It is generally believed that the anti-dumping investigation launched by China to Sorghum in America is to revenge Trump for levying taxes on solar panels and washing machines imported from China.
"The more serious problem for me is not what to grow, but how long it will continue as a farmer, not just for China, but for the United States to continue to grow food," Keesling said.
The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that it will impose a 25% tariff on about 1300 industrial technologies, transportation and medical products in China. Less than 11 hours after the announcement, China said it decided to impose a tariff of 25% on 14 categories of 106 commodities, such as soya beans, cars and chemicals, which were native to the United States.
Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) soybean futures fell 2.2% on Wednesday, hitting the low point of February 9th, 9.83-1/2 per bushel.
Keesling originally planned to grow more than 15% of its land this year, because China's demand has made soybeans more profitable than other crops. Now, he doesn't know what to do.
"If they are on the list of China," he said, "then you will enter the survival mode."
Gary Blumenthal, President and executive director of World Perspectives Inc., a Washington agricultural consultancy, said the intensification of trade tensions made the United States "the most unseen supplier in China", "there is a natural tension between the existing superpower and the emerging power."
The key question is whether China relies on the US soybean supply to the same extent as the US farmers depend on Chinese buyers. Analysts and managers of feed producers say it will be difficult for China to find alternatives to the supply of American soyabean, which may have a negative impact on its company's finance.
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