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International investment bank, UBS Securities macroeconomic research team issued a report Friday by China 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively, the main benefit from export and service sector activity is strong, and pointed out that the RMB exchange rate should not be used to deal with the Sino US trade friction, will be at the end of 2018, the RMB against the U.S. dollar forecast from 6.4 to 6.2.
UBS Securities macroeconomic research team recently published the latest report of the macro research, the increase in 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecast, and points out that this is due to a substantial increase of UBS global team forecast for the global economy, especially in Europe and the United States and non consumption energy investment is likely to be very strong, but the United States will also benefit from the tax cuts the influence of policy; although the Sino US trade friction may be increased, the macroeconomic research team still believes that export growth is likely to exceed the previous forecast, infrastructure and real estate investment may slow down gradually, the former is subject to local government financing constraints, which are subject to credit tightening and slowing sales; benefit from export and service sector activity is still strong, is expected this year the income will be steady, and support the overall consumption. The following are the main points of the report:
China's GDP growth forecast in 2018 to 6.6%, 2019 GDP growth forecast to 6.4%
We will China 2018 real GDP growth rate increased from 6.4% to 6.6%, in 2019 the real GDP growth rate increased from 6.3% to 6.4%, mainly due to a substantial increase of UBS global team forecasts for the world economy, especially is probably Chang Qiangjin in Europe and the United States and non energy consumption and investment, the United States will also benefit from the tax cuts the influence of policy. Although trade frictions between China and the United States are likely to increase, we still believe that export growth may exceed the previous forecasts. We still believe that capital construction and real estate investment may gradually slow down. The former is constrained by local government financing, and the latter is constrained by tight credit and slowing sales. Benefiting from strong export and service activities, we still expect the residents' income to be robust this year and support overall consumption.

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