China's central bank vice governor said the renminbi exchange rate is fully cond
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For the recent devaluation of the RMB against the dollar, China's central bank deputy governor, said Yi Gang, from the data, the yuan in the global monetary system is still showing a stable strong currency characteristics, the future of the RMB exchange rate is fully conditional remain reasonable Equilibrium level is basically stable.
The central bank website published a reporter's question, said the recent rise in the dollar faster, reflecting the US economic growth accelerated, rising inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve rate hike may be significantly accelerated and other factors within the United States; and the RMB exchange rate volatility has increased, Mainly Trump was elected President of the United States, the Federal Reserve interest rate increase is expected to suddenly, the British "off the European", the Egyptian pound and other external factors driven free float.
These factors on the world in terms of some accidents, capital flows to promote the US dollar index rose rapidly, the United States three major indexes to new highs, the global currency generally depreciated against the dollar, and some decline is still relatively large. "The next dollar trend there is uncertainty, do not rule out the market correction is expected to trigger the dollar callback possible."
He pointed out that the recent depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, but the relative magnitude of the majority of non-US currencies is still relatively small. The euro, the Swiss franc against the US dollar depreciated by 10.5%, 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively; the emerging market currencies, the Malaysian ringgit, won, the Mexican peso dollar depreciation of 7.2%, respectively, 6.5% and 6.1%, while the yuan against the US dollar fell by only 3.5%, only half of the dollar index increase.
Since the devaluation of the RMB against the US dollar is relatively small, the renminbi has appreciated appreciably in October relative to some major currencies. For example, in the currency of SDR, the yuan appreciated by 7.5 percent against the yen, by 2.5 percent against the euro and by 0.5 percent against the pound; in Asian emerging market currencies, the yuan against the Malaysian ringgit, The Singapore dollar appreciated by 4.1%, 3.3% and 1.2% respectively.
Yi Gang said that the observation of the RMB exchange rate to use a basket of currencies perspective. There are many factors that affect the level of a country's exchange rate, and the political situation, economic trends, stock market bond market fluctuations and changes in market expectations are related. As the economic structure of different countries, the economic cycle and interest rate policy orientation is not synchronized, such as the current China's economy maintained steady growth, monetary policy remained stable, while the US economy is a strong recovery, monetary policy tightening trend, the corresponding exchange rate movements It is difficult convergence.
"A single currency will accumulate the risk of overshoot, the subsequent amendments may cause a relatively large shock.Moreover, in the context of trade globalization, the reference to a basket of currencies and pegged to a single currency, better reflect a country's goods And the comprehensive competitiveness of services, but also play a more exchange rate adjustment of import and export, investment and the role of balance of payments.
He said that China is the world's largest trading country, the world's more than 200 economies are China's direct or indirect trading partners, the RMB reference to a basket of currencies can fully reflect the international price of traded goods. And the scale of Sino-US trade accounted for only 14% of the scale of China's foreign trade Moreover, China and the US economic cycle is not the same, change back to a single dollar pegged to the RMB exchange rate into a rigidity and overshoot of the plight of unsustainable.
RMB against the US dollar rose slightly on Friday, a week down 0.35%; the median price fell below 6.91 yuan another nearly eight and a half low.
** Foreign exchange reserves are sufficient **
In addition, Yi Gang also mentioned that despite the recent decline in China's foreign exchange reserves, but still the highest in the world, is very adequate. China's foreign exchange reserves are close to 30% of the world's total, ranking second in Japan and third in Saudi Arabia, 2.6 times and 5.7 times.
"From any point of view, China's foreign exchange reserves are very abundant, covering all foreign debt and imports after six months there is sufficient margin Moreover, in recent years there are about 500 billion US dollars in trade surplus and 1,200 billion US dollars Foreign direct investment through the financial medium to supply the whole society with foreign exchange demand. "He said.
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