The current yen exchange rate may lead to faster-than-expected inflation - forme
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"If the yen / dollar remains at the current level of around 110 yen for a few months, then Japan's inflation rate will become more positive sooner, faster than the Bank of Japan's forecast," said Yasuharu Sayuri, a former member of the BOJ's policy committee.
Asai early by the end of March this year in the Bank of Japan's term. She told Reuters global market forum that the Bank of Japan to take control of the yield curve of the policy may lead to credit distortions and create "zombie enterprise."
The following is an excerpt from the dialogue between Yasuyuki Takehara:
Q: Do you think the Bank of Japan cut interest rates in terms of how far?
A: In Japan, almost no one supports further interest rate cuts. Therefore, unless the yen appreciates sharply, the Bank of Japan may maintain its status quo.
Q: Is the Japanese yen the only consideration for the Bank of Japan's current interest rate adjustment?
A: Unfortunately, I think so. In the first year of quantitative easing, 2013, a sharp depreciation pushed up inflation expectations and real inflation. Therefore, the devaluation is the most important factor. I must admit it.
At present, the yield curve control strategy can be maintained. But if it continues for a long time, will cause the Japanese bond market a greater degree of distortion, and distort the credit, which will indirectly support the "zombie enterprise." That would dampen potential GDP growth.
Now there are a lot of zombie enterprises. They have a large number of employees, with low interest rates and government support to survive. If the enterprise can not survive an independent collapse, workers can enter a new business. This will benefit the Japanese economy.
Q: What do you think of Trump's market volatility since winning the election?
A: Some surprises. This may be good news for the Bank of Japan and the government. Early next year, prices may accelerate the pace, but we also see whether this trend continues.
If the yen remains at the current 110-yen level for several months, Japan's inflation rate will turn positive and it will be slightly faster than the central bank's recent forecast.
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