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In a piece of the Chinese economy has stabilized and explored the L-shaped bottom of the optimistic judgment, the Secretary-General of the China Macroeconomics Society, Wang Jian is expressed different views. He believes that the Chinese economy is standing on the edge of the cliff, weak external demand, corporate debt pressure and its liquidity is facing the depletion of three loose stone, the Chinese economic prospects are worrying.
He insisted that China's real economic growth rate should have dropped to 5% last year, this year should have dropped to below 3%, and temporarily stabilized at this level.
"China's economy is in the cliff side 'stop', still standing on the 'three loose stone', which a stone is loose, the Chinese economy will fall off the cliff." Wang said in an exclusive telephone interview.
China's total supply of the economy is greater than the total demand pattern, he believes that the fundamental reason for the economic downturn is the last government "four trillion" stimulus caused by the release of the peak capacity has been in the past, easing the pressure of full surplus, while High monetary policy also ensure that the expansion to hold a certain level of consumer demand, especially for residents to buy a house and car stimulation.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three quarters of the year was the same quarterly growth rate of 6.7%.
His analysis pointed out that from the three major demand, the first three quarters of the export value of the yuan fell 1.6%, the dollar fell 7.5%, export contraction; investment growth rate is still declining, and private investment in July "zero" growth, negative growth in August. The only bright spot is the high growth of consumption, but this data is also confusing.
"From the basic consumer goods, the Chinese beverage industry by 2015 the average annual growth rate of more than 20%, last year dropped to 5.8% in the first half and 'waist cut' to 2.8% ... these basic consumer goods are low growth and Negative growth, how can consumption growth in more than 10%? "Wang expressed his doubts.
In addition, car consumption, corporate profits and other data are also puzzling, "corporate profits last year, negative growth of 2.3% in the first 8 months of this year and suddenly returned to 8.4%, which jumped 19.5% in August month, but 9 The monthly corporate income tax increased by only 0.6%. "Wang said.
In spite of many inexplicable data, the PPI ended the 54-month decline, rising 0.1% in September and up 1.2% in October; the steady rise in power generation and 1% growth in rail freight in September , Have shown signs of economic downturn indeed stop.
"What is the reason for the economic downturn, and is temporarily stabilized, or has reached the bottom, will start 'bottoming out', need to find out the reasons." Has been committed to the data from the Chinese economy to explore the truth of Wang Jian pointed out.
After the outbreak of the crisis in 2007, in order to hedge external demand shrinking, the Chinese government out of the four trillion investment in the 2009-2011 three years, the total investment of up to 79 trillion, compared with 2001-2008 the total investment in eight years 10%, so after 2011, China's economic growth from 9% to 6% of the transition process, both external demand shrinking factors, there are "four trillion" investment growth after entering the peak release of production capacity reasons.
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